FOI reference - FOI 2016-12-29
Date - 29/12/2016
I have read the automatic enrolment commentary and analysis (PDF, 874kb, 45 pages) which is very helpful regarding the remaining staging employers but which ends at 2018.
I was wondering if you had done any thinking yet on what you feel the annual net new employers and members might be in the post-staging phase (ie what assumptions you have made for when the system settles down to a ‘new normal’ state).
I can confirm that we hold some of the information falling within scope of your request.
Information we are able to supply
We do not undertake analysis in relation to forecasting member numbers. You may find the recent DWP analysis on automatic enrolment useful, which forecasts number of people saving as a result of automatic enrolment to hit 10 million.
We have started work modeling the number of employers which may have duties post-staging (ie from February 2018 onwards). Preliminary analysis suggests that somewhere between 157,000 and 195,000 employers will have duties between April 2018 and March 2019.
The numbers of employers actually falling within the duties will vary because of a number of factors. For instance, the forecast does not account for future economic factors, legislative changes or the effect of the national living wage.
It is important to emphasise that this forecast is an estimate based on the data and information we have now, and we will continue to update it as new data or information becomes available. To this end, the next version of our staging profile due for publication in 2017 will include a view of employers with automatic enrolment duties from February 2018 onwards.